A recent analysis reveals that the Saskatchewan government’s plan to upgrade its coal-fired power plants could amount to as much as $46.4 billion over the next two decades. This cost projection surpasses the $26 billion estimate outlined in leaked internal SaskPower documents. Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to assess the expenses associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy to transition from coal-fired plants to nuclear power and the implementation of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Dolter’s research indicates that maintaining the coal plants and integrating a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems, as initially planned by the province before a policy reversal in early 2025, would be a more cost-effective and environmentally friendly approach. According to Dolter, this alternative strategy could save an average individual over $800 annually while reducing emissions. The analysis drew insights from leaked SaskPower documents, data presented to the province’s rate review panel, and certain assumptions due to the lack of transparency in the government’s internal analysis.
Furthermore, Dolter emphasized that factoring in carbon pricing significantly influences the financial outlook. Without carbon pricing for heavy emitters, the cost of prolonging coal reliance would reach $30.2 billion over the next 20 years. When carbon pricing is considered, the projected expenses soar to $46.4 billion, reflecting the impact of pollution associated with coal-fired plants.
Despite the clear financial implications highlighted by Dolter’s analysis, the government declined to provide a response to the findings. Instead, it reiterated its commitment to ensuring reliable and affordable electricity as vital for the province’s ongoing development. The government’s stance aligns with statements made by Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison, emphasizing an integrated approach to meeting energy demands through the utilization of local resources, including nuclear energy deployment.
Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan, a city reliant on natural resources, expressed concerns over the potential population decline faced without coal-fired plants. However, following the government’s decision to refurbish the coal plants, Sernick sees a brighter outlook for the city’s future with new development prospects on the horizon. The mayor’s sentiment reflects a shift in perception since the government’s policy shift in early 2025.
Moreover, Saskatchewan’s divergence from federal regulations aimed at phasing out coal-fired power stations by 2030 poses financial and legal risks. While previous federal mandates mandated compliance from the province, Harrison’s rejection of these regulations could lead to legal challenges. Dolter warned that disregarding clean electricity regulations, coal-fired regulations, and carbon pricing could expose the province to substantial legal and financial consequences, potentially resulting in wasted investments in refurbishing the coal plants.
