A recent peer-reviewed study has highlighted heavy rainfall as a significant threat to cocoa production, challenging the common focus on heat and drought. The study, led by environmental fellow Anna Lea Albright at Harvard University, revealed that extreme rainfall poses the strongest weather risk to cocoa cultivation.
In the past few years, cocoa prices have surged dramatically, impacting consumers worldwide. Currently, a tonne of cocoa is priced at around $6,000 US, compared to the previous range of $2,000 to $3,000 US per tonne since 2014. This price spike was notably triggered by various factors, including severe flooding in West Africa, a key cocoa-growing region with over two million farmers.
Leslie Agyare, the founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, emphasized the challenges posed by heavy rainfall this year, affecting crop management and harvest efforts. Despite the looming threats of climate change intensifying extreme rainfall events, the study suggests potential mitigation strategies to safeguard cocoa production, a staple enjoyed by billions globally.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, focused on Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. By analyzing district-level production data alongside rainfall and temperature patterns, the researchers identified extreme rainfall during flowering as a significant factor limiting cocoa yields, more so than temperature fluctuations.
The adverse effects of heavy rain extend beyond yield limitations, leading to increased fungal infections like black pod disease, which can devastate cocoa crops. The research also highlighted a clear climate signal, indicating that warmer air, holding more moisture, contributes to intensified rainfall during the wet season.
While El Niño typically reduces the risk of extreme rainfall in West Africa but increases the likelihood of drought, farmers like Agyare are facing challenges with unpredictable weather patterns. In addition to climate-related risks, the study also underscored non-climactic threats such as aging trees and illegal mining, further complicating cocoa production.
Experts emphasize the urgent need for infrastructure investments and interventions such as fungicide application and improved drainage systems to combat the spread of diseases and enhance resilience in cocoa farming. However, the increasing climate shocks and labor-intensive post-harvest processes may drive smallholder farmers away from cocoa cultivation, potentially reshaping the chocolate industry’s future landscape.
In response to the growing challenges, major players in the industry, like Nestlé, are exploring cocoa-free alternatives like ChoViva, a sunflower seed-based chocolate, as a more sustainable and resilient option amidst the volatile cocoa market. The evolving dynamics in cocoa production raise concerns about the future viability of traditional cocoa farming practices in the face of climate change and economic pressures.
