Once Andy Burnham expressed his interest in entering the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer faced a challenging dilemma. Allowing Burnham to run could potentially fuel speculation about a leadership challenge and eliminate a barrier to such a move, given that only MPs are eligible to vie for the leadership position.
Moreover, the added prospect of engaging in an unforeseen mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, amidst the already looming tough elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May, presented a significant risk for Labour. Poor outcomes in these elections could pose a real threat to Starmer, with contenders like Burnham eyeing the leadership opportunity.
The alternative route, as chosen by the Prime Minister, was to block Burnham, citing the financial burden on taxpayers associated with holding a mayoral race and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move may have averted an immediate crisis, its long-term repercussions could be severe.
Following the announcement, a flurry of messages flooded my phone from outraged MPs accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a stitch-up. Burnham runs the risk of becoming a symbol for disgruntled backbenchers who interpret the decision as overbearing control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary faction has already displayed a propensity for rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple policy reversals, and further exacerbating tensions will only complicate Starmer’s position.
In private discussions prior to the decision, a government official hinted that allowing Burnham to run would have been a bolder move, suggesting that Starmer’s image could suffer from blocking him.
Recent aggressive briefings against Wes Streeting, identified as a potential leadership contender, and the prohibition of Burnham’s return to Westminster by No10, have stirred debates about the government’s motives. Opinions on whether these actions reflect strength or weakness vary, but the prevailing sentiment leans towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that the public has grown weary of. However, in reality, this may not be the case. Until Starmer manages to boost Labour’s declining poll ratings, speculations about his future will persist.
While Burnham has faced criticism, with some suggesting that he prioritizes his personal ambitions over the interests of Greater Manchester residents who elected him recently, his popularity remains strong. Recognized for his leadership outside of the Westminster bubble, he earned the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured a comfortable victory in Gorton in 2024, the party faces a tough challenge in retaining the seat, with Reform making a concerted effort to cause an upset and the Greens exerting pressure from the left. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the election’s outcome.
Should Labour lose the upcoming by-election, repercussions are expected to be severe.
